USC-LA Times poll shows Trump slightly ahead and rising, Hillary falling
By Thomas Lifson
the election, the USC Dornsife / LA Times Presidential Election Poll
has been an outlier, showing Trump more favorably than other polls,
often by substantial margins. It uses a radically different design, and
is intended in particular to show trends. The poll describes itself as a
approach to tracking changes in Americans' opinions throughout a
campaign for the White House. Around 3000 respondents in our
representative panel are asked questions on a regular basis on what they
care about most in the election, and on their attitudes toward their
preferred candidates. The "Daybreak poll" is updated just after midnight
every day of the week.
The poll this morning
shows Trump has reversed his decline and is ahead by a statistically
insignificant fraction of one percent, 44.4% to 43.8%. But look at the
consensus throughout the media rooting for Hillary to win (95% of them)
is that Trump is over, done, and needing a fork stuck in him as soon as
possible. But nobody has a clue as to what turnout will be this time.
Nobody knows how much vote fraud there will be. If
unenthusiastic Hillary supporters believe she will win, they may not
bother to vote. And if new voters flock to support Trump, the turnout
models used bvyt he polls, based on past experience, may be worthless.