Wednesday, November 09, 2016

2016 Election - The Moment of Decision - Trump Won

Donald Trump has Kentucky, Indiana, West Virginia, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Carolina, Texas, South Dakota, Wyoming, Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, Idaho, Utah, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Georgia, Iowa, Utah, Pennsylvania, 
Hillary Clinton has Vermont, Delaware, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, D.C., Delaware, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, Colorado, Illinois, Virginia, New Mexico, Oregon, Nevada
It's looking like a win for Trump and Republicans in the House and Senate. It's hard to think of a bigger rebuke to Obama's legacy than this. Especially after how hard he campaigned for Hillary.
"The tenor of the Democratic election night party in Philadelphia is that of panic and gloom. The crowd is dwindling. The state’s Democratic leaders are huddled in a separate room."
Senators Tim Scott, Rob Portman, Rubio, Young, Burr, Rand Paul, Shelby, McCain, Lankford, Grassley, Johnson, Lee, Toomey won re-election. On the Democratic side, so did Leahy, Bennet, Van Hollen and Blumenthal.
Exit polls suggest a slight downturn in the black percentage of the electorate, a slight rise in the Hispanic percentage, a slight fall in white percentage of the electorate. Exit polls can be iffy, but it does look like Trump is doing better with rural voters in some areas while losing some college educated voters. The real question in this election whether the model of appealing to the white working class, one I've championed in the past, holds up. If it does, that will be a major political gamechanger, even to some degree regardless of the outcome. What we are seeing in many cases is a kind of velocity with major shifts, with Trump suddenly doing well in counties where Romney did poorly and doing badly in counties where Romney did well. To some degree this may also reflect larger national shifts. The kind that previously turned reliably blue states, red.
There's definitely a Brexit factor in play here in the Rust Belt and the split between urban and rural voters.
Tammy Duckworth has gotten herself a Senate seat in Illinois. Mark Kirk is out. But so is Bayh. This fits with the larger tribal model we're seeing across the landscape.
Death penalty referendums are doing well. That's a plus for the law and order vote. And a loss for the pro-crime lobby. On the other hand pot referendums are also doing well. So is assisted suicide.

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