Late polling traditionally tightens in presidential races, as propagandistic polls with samples biased toward one candidate or another start to refine their models, ion order to be not-too-far off from the final vote counts.
What is unusual, maybe even unprecedented, is the volume of negative feelings toward both leading candidates. This makes turnout even more crucial than usual, for there is an excellent chance that numbers of people will fail to rouse themselves sufficiently to vote for a candidate they are not terribly enthusiastic over.
And that is why an item from this morning’s Rasmussen Reports is so significant. Rasmussen finding an advantage for Trump is not unexpected. So the most prominent finding may not make much of an impression on he Hillary camp and its media friends:
Republican Donald Trump has a three-point lead in Rasmussen Reports’ White House Watch survey.
Ho-hum, Rasmussen has had Trump in the lead before.
Eighty-eight percent (88%) of voters say they are now certain how they will vote. Among these voters, Trump has a 10-point lead over Clinton – 53% to 43%. Johnson gets two percent (2%) and Stein one percent (1%). This is the first time any candidate has crossed the 50% mark. Among those who still could change their minds, it’s Clinton 36%, Trump 36%, Johnson 22% and Stein six percent (6%).
Ten points is way over a sampling or a model error. There is a good chance a thick slice of the uncertain voters will stay home. And a ties there for Hillary will not solve her ten point gap among those who will vote.
If this holds, Trump wins big.