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News by Fred Alan Medforth
Wednesday, April 05, 2017
Markets on EDGE as Marine Le Pen chances of winning French election RISE
MARKET nerves have surged to levels last seen since the eurozone crisis in select areas, after Marine Le Pen's odds of winning the French election crept up.The gap between French and German government borrowing costs, measured by two-year bond yields, is now at its highest level since 2012, amid the rising chances of a victory for the anti-Brussels candidate.
Worried investors are rushing to pile money into German safe havens, and the euro has also come under fresh selling pressure, ahead of the first-round of the French election later this month.
Emmanuel Macron is still the favourite to win the final vote in May, but the chances have now dipped to 63 per cent, while Ms Le Pen's odds are now at 25 per cent.Following misleading polls in the run-up to the Brexit vote and the US election, markets remain on edge.
The Front National leader has promised a Frexit vote if she becomes the next leader of France.
All eyes are now on a key election debate tonight between the presidential candidates.Kathleen Brooks, research director at City Index Direct, said: "As we lead up to the election later this month, the euro has been retreating and EURUSD has fallen below its 50-day sma at 1.0670.
"The French-German 10-year yield spread has also been on the rise again as we lead up to tonight’s debate, it currently stands at 66 basis points.
"If Le Pen wins tonight then we would expect a swift decline in the euro and a sharp rise in the French-German yield spread." http://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/787815/French-election-2017-chances-Marine-Le-Pen-win-markets-on-edge