Tuesday, October 25, 2016

November 8th: Trump +5

By Andrew Grant White

Conventional wisdom says that Trump's a dead duck, and we all know how prescient is conventional wisdom. Only two weeks left until election and RealClearPolitics (RCP) puts Clinton about 6 points ahead. So confident is Hillary (supposedly) that one newspaper now urges her to divert some from the presidential campaign and help Democrats in Senate and House races. We should be so lucky.
Back to the point. Presidential polls are split into two camps: MSM polls and non-MSM polls. They have starkly different characteristics and results. MSM polls come from those you already know, and the companies themselves have already shed their last shred of dignity and objectivity to throw in with Hillary. They also poll in discreet measure (i.e. release a poll whenever they want one to come out).
Non-MSM polls are not as well known but quite accomplished (e.g. Rasmussen, LA Times/USC, IDB/TIPP - the most accurate in 2012 election, btw). They also poll daily (actually an average of the last three days). Finally, MSM polls consistently show Hillary up by an average of 8%, whereas the non-MSM polls have shown variation based on events and a logical current tightening of the polls down to basically +/-1% or so per candidate (e.g. Trump in the lead right now by 2% in Rasmussen's poll).
What if the polls change more favorably for Trump? Great, but I'm not counting that here. What about the 2012 party sampling (or worse) adjustment to data? Have you seen the difference in the candidate's rallies? But so what? I'm not factoring that in either. No, I'm not talking about polls changes or the supposedly awoken silent majority giant. I'm talking about the Bradley Effect.
For those not familiar with the Bradley Effect, it doesn't happen too often. Specifically, it is named after a black LA major who ran for California Governor against a white man in 1982 (unusual for the times). Bradley was ahead in the polls when on election day, the exact opposite occurred. He lost. Supposedly the polls were flawed because people did not want to sound racist when polled. The Bradley Effect is not specific to one race, though, nor to race itself. It occurs in unusual times at different magnitude.
Can you think of a candidate today whose name causes hush practically anywhere you go? I can: Trump - "The Love that dare not speak its Name."  Such uniform pervasive societal and personal pressure not to support Trump has led to the distinct possibility of another Bradley Effect. In essence, Trump has closet Democrat, independent and -- yes -- Republican supporters whose support simply does not show up in any poll of either camp. How do I back this up? Simple: I don't. It's a gut feeling, an intuition, a logical conclusion for out times, and a resulting 3 points added onto Rasmussen's current Trump +2%.
Therefore, I will now go on record that -- even if nothing happens in the polls or sampling of today -- Trump will win on November 8th by at least 5%. The man no one said would/could run; the man no one said would make it out of the primaries alive; the man whose epitaph has been written by the MSM so many times its even been done literally; the man whom supposedly everybody hates...will be President of the United States-Elect. Get used to it. Oh, and, buy stocks on the market swoon and dump your debt.


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